Volume 11, Number 9, September 2005

Potential Impact of Antiviral Drug Use during Influenza Pandemic

Raymond Gani,* Helen Hughes,* Douglas Fleming,† Thomas Griffin,* Jolyon Medlock,* and Steve Leach*
*Health Protection Agency, Salisbury, Wiltshire, United Kingdom; and †Royal College of General Practitioners, Harborne, Birmingham, United Kingdom

Figure 1. Estimated impact of different sizes of antiviral stockpiles on the number of clinical cases at the end of the pandemic. Depicted are clinical attack rates before interventions of 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, and 40%, with corresponding values for the basic reproduction number (R₀) of 1.28, 1.39, 1.53, 1.72, and 2.0 respectively. The precipitous decreases observed with the 20% and 25% attack rates result at the points at which the stockpile becomes large enough to last long enough to prevent a recrudescence of the epidemic by suppressing the effective reproduction number.

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This page last reviewed August 17, 2005

Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal
National Center for Infectious Diseases
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention